Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 70

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(:02) 2-D.Butler punts 40 yards to BUF 30, Center-86-K.Canaday. 15-B.Tate to ARI 39 for 31 yards (20-D.Bucannon, 2-D.Butler). ARI-86-K.Canaday was injured during the play.

The Three Options

GO -1.52 EP

47% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.36 EP
53% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model