Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tennessee Titans 4th & 7 at the 77

Tennessee Titans 10 – Detroit Lions 15

(8:52) 6-B.Kern punts 54 yards to DET 23, Center-48-B.Brinkley. 12-A.Roberts pushed ob at DET 36 for 13 yards (48-B.Brinkley).

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.37 EP
62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 77, worth -4.43 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model