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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 47

Detroit Lions 15 – Tennessee Titans 10

What Actually Happened

(10:42) 6-S.Martin punts 38 yards to TEN 9, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 87-M.Mariani.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.58 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 47, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.01 EP
  • 37% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.87 EP
  • 63% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 49, worth -2.72 EP
PUNT -0.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 13, worth -0.52 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model