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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 9 at the 9

Detroit Lions 12 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(1:44) 5-M.Prater 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

The Three Options

GO +2.07 EP
Model's Pick
  • 32% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.10 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 9, worth +0.20 EP
KICK +2.07 EP
What Happened
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 21, worth -0.60 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Tennessee Titans would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model