Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Detroit Lions 4th & 10 at the 61

Detroit Lions 12 – Tennessee Titans 3

What Actually Happened

(12:30) 6-S.Martin punts 51 yards to TEN 10, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 87-M.Mariani to TEN 24 for 14 yards (50-T.Armbrister). PENALTY on TEN-23-B.McCain, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 6 yards, enforced at TEN 12.

The Three Options

GO -1.09 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.93 EP
64% chance to fail: Tennessee Titans takes over around their own 61, worth -3.39 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (78 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model