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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 2 at the 57

Arizona Cardinals 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(8:58) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to TB 7, Center-86-K.Canaday. 11-A.Humphries to TB 7 for no gain (28-J.Bethel).

The Three Options

GO +0.48 EP
Model's Pick
  • 60% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 55, worth +2.65 EP
  • 40% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 57, worth -2.84 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (74 yards).

PUNT -0.30 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 17, worth -0.30 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP