Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 68

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 7 – Arizona Cardinals 40

(3:05) 9-B.Anger punts 52 yards to ARI 16, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-J.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -1.43 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +1.62 EP
65% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 68, worth -3.09 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model