Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 10 at the 75

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0 – Arizona Cardinals 17

(1:13) 9-B.Anger punts 49 yards to ARI 26, Center-48-A.DePaola, fair catch by 12-J.Brown.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP

36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
64% chance to fail: Arizona Cardinals takes over around their own 75, worth -4.15 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model