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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 1 at the 82

Arizona Cardinals 10 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(5:36) 2-D.Butler punts 50 yards to TB 32, Center-86-K.Canaday. 11-A.Humphries ran ob at TB 49 for 17 yards. Arizona challenged the runner was in bounds ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:23.)

The Three Options

GO -0.82 EP
Model's Pick
  • 74% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 81, worth +0.53 EP
  • 26% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 82, worth -4.60 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 40, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.12 EP