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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Arizona Cardinals 4th & 5 at the 5

Arizona Cardinals 7 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:48) 7-C.Catanzaro 22 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-K.Canaday, Holder-2-D.Butler.

The Three Options

GO +2.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.00 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 5, worth +0.12 EP
KICK +2.00 EP
What Happened
  • 98% chance to make a 22-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.06 EP
  • 2% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 21, worth -0.73 EP
PUNT -0.10 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.10 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP