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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 6 at the 26

Philadelphia Eagles 29 – Chicago Bears 14

What Actually Happened

(2:13) (Shotgun) 11-C.Wentz pass short left to 81-J.Matthews to CHI 19 for 7 yards (27-S.McManis).

The Three Options

GO -0.19 EP
What Happened
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.31 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 26, worth -1.61 EP
KICK +0.77 EP
Model's Pick
  • 82% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.35 EP
  • 18% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 36, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.84 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.84 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.95 EP