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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Chicago Bears 4th & 1 at the 19

Chicago Bears 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 29

What Actually Happened

(6:58) (Shotgun) 2-B.Hoyer pass incomplete deep right to 13-K.White (27-M.Jenkins) [98-C.Barwin].

The Three Options

GO +2.78 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 66% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 18, worth +4.69 EP
  • 34% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 19, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.43 EP
  • 91% chance to make a 36-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 29, worth -1.46 EP
PUNT -0.47 EP
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.47 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model