Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Chicago Bears 4th & 6 at the 54

Chicago Bears 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 9

What Actually Happened

(5:35) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 32 yards to PHI 22, Center-48-P.Scales, downed by CHI-58-J.Anderson. PENALTY on CHI-36-D.Houston-Carson, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at PHI 22.

The Three Options

GO -0.52 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.89 EP
59% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 54, worth -2.87 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model