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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 3 at the 46

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(9:44) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 35 yards to CHI 11, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO +0.20 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 43, worth +3.06 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 46, worth -2.69 EP
KICK -1.19 EP
  • 35% chance to make a 63-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 65% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 49, worth -2.85 EP
PUNT -0.33 EP
What Happened
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 13, worth -0.33 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.53 EP