Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 84

Philadelphia Eagles 9 – Chicago Bears 7

(12:52) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 55 yards to CHI 29, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, fair catch by 19-E.Royal.

The Three Options

GO -3.22 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.90 EP
75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model