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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 78

Chicago Bears 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 6

What Actually Happened

(1:46) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 51 yards to PHI 27, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO -0.84 EP
Model's Pick
  • 62% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +1.15 EP
  • 38% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 78, worth -4.11 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.45 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 35, worth -1.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.60 EP