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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 7 at the 11

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Chicago Bears 7

What Actually Happened

(2:31) (Field Goal formation) 6-C.Sturgis 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, Holder-8-D.Jones.

The Three Options

GO +1.57 EP
  • 32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 4, worth +5.89 EP
  • 68% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP
KICK +1.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Chicago Bears takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.75 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 22, worth -0.96 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Chicago Bears would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model