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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Chicago Bears 4th & 2 at the 40

Chicago Bears 7 – Philadelphia Eagles 3

What Actually Happened

(7:45) (Punt formation) 16-P.O'Donnell punts 28 yards to PHI 12, Center-48-P.Scales, fair catch by 43-D.Sproles.

The Three Options

GO +1.26 EP
Model's Pick
  • 57% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.60 EP
  • 43% chance to fail: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 40, worth -1.89 EP
KICK -0.32 EP
  • 51% chance to make a 57-yard field goal: 3 points, then Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.85 EP
  • 49% chance to miss: Philadelphia Eagles takes over around their own 49, worth -2.57 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
What Happened
  • Philadelphia Eagles would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.64 EP