Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Philadelphia Eagles 4th & 20 at the 84

Philadelphia Eagles 3 – Chicago Bears 7

(9:29) (Punt formation) 8-D.Jones punts 32 yards to PHI 48, Center-46-J.Dorenbos, downed by PHI-46-J.Dorenbos.

The Three Options

GO -3.24 EP

25% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.74 EP
75% chance to fail: Chicago Bears takes over around their own 84, worth -4.94 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model