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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 New York Jets 4th & 1 at the 11

New York Jets 3 – Buffalo Bills 7

What Actually Happened

(:04) 2-N.Folk 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +3.38 EP
Model's Pick
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 10, worth +5.14 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP
KICK +1.87 EP
What Happened
  • 96% chance to make a 28-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.00 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 22, worth -0.78 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.51 EP