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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 45

Buffalo Bills 24 – New York Jets 30

What Actually Happened

(7:11) 25-L.McCoy left guard to NYJ 45 for no gain (91-S.Richardson, 50-D.Lee). Measurement = ball surrendered on downs.

The Three Options

GO +1.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.62 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 45, worth -2.20 EP
KICK -1.14 EP
  • 33% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 67% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 49, worth -2.50 EP
PUNT -0.74 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 12, worth -0.74 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model