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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 New York Jets 4th & 4 at the 18

New York Jets 27 – Buffalo Bills 24

What Actually Happened

(10:40) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-T.Purdum, Holder-4-L.Edwards.

The Three Options

GO +1.64 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.99 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -0.91 EP
KICK +1.47 EP
What Happened
  • 91% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.76 EP
  • 9% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.42 EP
PUNT -0.35 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model