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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 21

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 20

What Actually Happened

(:10) 2-D.Carpenter 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-65-G.Sanborn, Holder-6-C.Schmidt.

The Three Options

GO +1.83 EP
  • 65% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +2.82 EP
  • 35% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 21, worth -0.04 EP
KICK +2.57 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 88% chance to make a 38-yard field goal: 3 points, then New York Jets takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.96 EP
  • 12% chance to miss: New York Jets takes over around their own 31, worth -0.15 EP
PUNT -0.01 EP
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 11, worth -0.01 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model