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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 3 at the 67

Buffalo Bills 7 – New York Jets 6

What Actually Happened

(13:32) 6-C.Schmidt punts 33 yards to NYJ 34, Center-65-G.Sanborn, downed by BUF-50-R.Humber.

The Three Options

GO -0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +1.92 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: New York Jets takes over around their own 67, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.94 EP
What Happened
  • New York Jets would take over around their own 25, worth -0.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model