Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 11 at the 65

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 7

(3:26) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to HOU 17, Center-41-J.Winchester. 34-T.Ervin pushed ob at HOU 23 for 6 yards (49-D.Sorensen).

The Three Options

GO -1.97 EP

30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +2.36 EP
70% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 65, worth -3.83 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (82 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model