Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Houston Texans 4th & 7 at the 82

Houston Texans 7 – Kansas City Chiefs 0

(4:33) 9-S.Lechler punts 62 yards to KC 20, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill pushed ob at KC 36 for 16 yards (52-B.Peters).

The Three Options

GO -2.38 EP

38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 75, worth +1.34 EP
62% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 82, worth -4.65 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (99 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model