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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 2 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 0 – Houston Texans 7

What Actually Happened

(6:21) 2-D.Colquitt punts 48 yards to HOU 15, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 34-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.68 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 61, worth +1.60 EP
  • 42% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.77 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.08 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.40 EP