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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 7 at the 12

Kansas City Chiefs 9 – Houston Texans 19

What Actually Happened

(:52) 5-C.Santos 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +1.31 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 5, worth +4.38 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 12, worth -0.05 EP
KICK +2.64 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 96% chance to make a 29-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.77 EP
  • 4% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 22, worth -0.20 EP
PUNT -0.04 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model