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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Houston Texans 4th & 1 at the 26

Houston Texans 16 – Kansas City Chiefs 9

What Actually Happened

(3:00) 8-N.Novak 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-J.Weeks, Holder-9-S.Lechler. (The Field Goal was deflected by #92.)

The Three Options

GO +0.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 63% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +2.21 EP
  • 37% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 26, worth -1.96 EP
KICK +0.50 EP
What Happened
  • 84% chance to make a 43-yard field goal: 3 points, then Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.03 EP
  • 16% chance to miss: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 36, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -1.12 EP
  • Kansas City Chiefs would take over around their own 11, worth -1.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model