4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 8 at the 17

Kansas City Chiefs 6 – Houston Texans 16

What Actually Happened

(7:38) 5-C.Santos 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.99 EP
  • 29% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 9, worth +5.28 EP
  • 71% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 17, worth -0.80 EP
KICK +1.58 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 93% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.80 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 27, worth -1.25 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model