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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 5 at the 25

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(15:00) 5-C.Santos 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-2-D.Colquitt.

The Three Options

GO +0.98 EP
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.48 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 25, worth -1.10 EP
KICK +1.33 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 85% chance to make a 42-yard field goal: 3 points, then Houston Texans takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.90 EP
  • 15% chance to miss: Houston Texans takes over around their own 35, worth -1.91 EP
PUNT -0.11 EP
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 11, worth -0.11 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model