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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 9 at the 85

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(3:53) 2-D.Colquitt punts 57 yards to HOU 28, Center-41-J.Winchester. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 29 for 1 yard (14-D.Robinson).

The Three Options

GO -3.02 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 76, worth +0.73 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 85, worth -5.08 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

PUNT -2.28 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 43, worth -2.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model