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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 15 at the 78

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(7:06) 2-D.Colquitt punts 38 yards to HOU 40, Center-41-J.Winchester. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 46 for 6 yards (10-T.Hill; 80-J.O'Shaughnessy).

The Three Options

GO -2.91 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.74 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 78, worth -4.65 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 35, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model