Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Houston Texans 4th & 9 at the 68

Houston Texans 13 – Kansas City Chiefs 3

What Actually Happened

(8:56) 9-S.Lechler punts 44 yards to KC 24, Center-46-J.Weeks. 10-T.Hill to KC 37 for 13 yards (34-T.Ervin; 41-J.Grimes). PENALTY on KC-88-R.Travis, Illegal Block Above the Waist, 10 yards, enforced at KC 37.

The Three Options

GO -1.92 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 59, worth +2.17 EP
68% chance to fail: Kansas City Chiefs takes over around their own 68, worth -3.88 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model