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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Kansas City Chiefs 4th & 1 at the 63

Kansas City Chiefs 3 – Houston Texans 13

What Actually Happened

(12:56) 2-D.Colquitt punts 56 yards to HOU 7, Center-41-J.Winchester. 34-T.Ervin to HOU 6 for -1 yards (10-T.Hill).

The Three Options

GO +0.22 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +2.03 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Houston Texans takes over around their own 63, worth -3.71 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened
  • Houston Texans would take over around their own 21, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.35 EP