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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 5 at the 36

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 14

What Actually Happened

(12:11) 2-J.Myers 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Right, Center-46-C.Tinker, Holder-3-B.Nortman.

The Three Options

GO +0.33 EP
Model's Pick
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 31, worth +3.74 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.92 EP
KICK +0.04 EP
What Happened
  • 60% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.84 EP
  • 40% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.65 EP
PUNT -0.12 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.12 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model