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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 8 at the 54

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(5:16) 8-D.Kaser punts 48 yards to JAX 6, Center-47-M.Windt. 13-R.Greene to JAX 14 for 8 yards (29-C.Mager).

The Three Options

GO -0.64 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 46, worth +3.17 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 54, worth -2.70 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 16, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model