Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 7 at the 80

Los Angeles Chargers 38 – Jacksonville Jaguars 7

(3:41) 8-D.Kaser punts 30 yards to JAX 50, Center-47-M.Windt, out of bounds. PENALTY on JAX-55-D.Skuta, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at 50.

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 73, worth +0.93 EP
60% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 80, worth -4.00 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model