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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 3 at the 17

Jacksonville Jaguars 7 – Los Angeles Chargers 38

What Actually Happened

(4:52) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass incomplete deep middle to 88-A.Hurns (23-D.McCoil).

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 46% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 14, worth +4.88 EP
  • 54% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 17, worth -0.02 EP
KICK +2.18 EP
  • 92% chance to make a 34-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.42 EP
  • 8% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 27, worth -0.66 EP
PUNT +0.26 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.26 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model