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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 4 at the 23

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 35

What Actually Happened

(14:27) (Shotgun) 5-B.Bortles pass short left to 11-M.Lee to LAC 9 for 14 yards (37-J.Addae).

The Three Options

GO +1.88 EP
What Happened
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.99 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 23, worth -0.35 EP
KICK +1.98 EP
Model's Pick
  • 86% chance to make a 40-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.49 EP
  • 14% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 33, worth -1.09 EP
PUNT +0.66 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.66 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model