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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 10 at the 48

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(7:16) 3-B.Nortman punts 41 yards to LAC 7, Center-46-C.Tinker, downed by JAX-17-A.Benn.

The Three Options

GO -0.76 EP
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.41 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 48, worth -2.58 EP
KICK -1.27 EP
  • 29% chance to make a 65-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.09 EP
  • 71% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.66 EP
PUNT -0.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model