4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 15 at the 67

Los Angeles Chargers 28 – Jacksonville Jaguars 0

What Actually Happened

(7:58) 8-D.Kaser punts 39 yards to JAX 28, Center-47-M.Windt, fair catch by 13-R.Greene.

The Three Options

GO -2.06 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 52, worth +2.60 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Jacksonville Jaguars takes over around their own 67, worth -3.82 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (84 yards).

PUNT -0.90 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Jacksonville Jaguars would take over around their own 25, worth -0.90 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model