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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 15 at the 63

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 28

What Actually Happened

(9:52) 3-B.Nortman punts 56 yards to LAC 7, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-T.Benjamin ran ob at LAC 19 for 12 yards (83-B.Koyack).

The Three Options

GO -1.88 EP
  • 26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 48, worth +2.85 EP
  • 74% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 63, worth -3.58 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (80 yards).

PUNT -0.71 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 21, worth -0.71 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model