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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Jacksonville Jaguars 4th & 9 at the 75

Jacksonville Jaguars 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 21

What Actually Happened

(12:35) 3-B.Nortman punts 39 yards to LAC 36, Center-46-C.Tinker. 12-T.Benjamin pushed ob at LAC 45 for 9 yards (87-N.Sterling).

The Three Options

GO -2.29 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.57 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 75, worth -4.39 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (92 yards).

PUNT -1.82 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 32, worth -1.82 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model