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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 8 at the 70

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Denver Broncos 3

What Actually Happened

(:02) 1-P.McAfee punts 51 yards to DEN 19, Center-45-M.Overton. 11-J.Norwood to DEN 31 for 12 yards (41-M.Farley).

The Three Options

GO -2.05 EP
  • 34% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
  • 66% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 70, worth -4.04 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (87 yards).

PUNT -1.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 28, worth -1.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model