Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 7 at the 72

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Denver Broncos 3

(4:34) 1-P.McAfee punts 72 yards to end zone, Center-45-M.Overton, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -2.32 EP

37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.33 EP
63% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 72, worth -4.44 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model