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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 30

Indianapolis Colts 0 – Denver Broncos 0

What Actually Happened

(8:21) 4-A.Vinatieri 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO +1.87 EP
Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.93 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 30, worth -1.72 EP
KICK +0.65 EP
What Happened
  • 75% chance to make a 47-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 25% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 40, worth -2.41 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.22 EP