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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 1 at the 66

Indianapolis Colts 13 – Denver Broncos 23

What Actually Happened

(12:40) 1-P.McAfee punts 50 yards to DEN 16, Center-45-M.Overton, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO +0.02 EP
Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.70 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 66, worth -3.50 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -0.79 EP
What Happened
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 24, worth -0.79 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.82 EP