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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Denver Broncos 4th & 2 at the 36

Denver Broncos 0 – Indianapolis Colts 0

What Actually Happened

(11:47) 8-B.McManus 54 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-42-C.Kreiter, Holder-9-R.Dixon.

The Three Options

GO +1.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 55% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.99 EP
  • 45% chance to fail: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 36, worth -1.57 EP
KICK +0.60 EP
What Happened
  • 62% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +2.41 EP
  • 38% chance to miss: Indianapolis Colts takes over around their own 46, worth -2.34 EP
PUNT +0.28 EP
  • Indianapolis Colts would take over around their own 11, worth +0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.86 EP