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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Indianapolis Colts 4th & 15 at the 34

Indianapolis Colts 3 – Denver Broncos 10

What Actually Happened

(2:47) 4-A.Vinatieri 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-45-M.Overton, Holder-1-P.McAfee.

The Three Options

GO -0.40 EP
  • 22% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 19, worth +4.54 EP
  • 78% chance to fail: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 34, worth -1.80 EP
KICK +0.41 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 67% chance to make a 51-yard field goal: 3 points, then Denver Broncos takes over around their own 24 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Denver Broncos takes over around their own 44, worth -2.21 EP
PUNT -0.38 EP
  • Denver Broncos would take over around their own 11, worth -0.38 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model